Product
Your AI can already think about the future. Credence gives AIs the data to do it right.
Our probability API grounds your AI in real-world evidence and probabilities — backed by financial markets, not hallucinations.
One query. One probability object.
Ask “How likely is event X?” and you get three values with explicit scope:
- Market price — the captured prediction-market price.
- Calibrated probability — our outcome-calibrated point forecast for the event.
- Evidence strength — how held-out cohorts of comparable forecasts behaved.
Evidence strength is group-conditional. It is not an effective sample count or latent-precision estimate for the returned market.
Evidence strength describes the cohort.
A calibrated probability is a point forecast. Evidence strength adds a summary of how held-out cohorts of comparable forecasts behaved.
An agent can use that group-level signal in its own risk policy. It should never read it as proof that this market has a measurable latent precision.
Built for agents. REST when you need it.
Credence is MCP-native — your agent calls it as a tool inside its own loop, no glue code. Or hit REST directly. Same probability object either way.
Integrates easily via MCP with Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, Copilot, and more.
From market data to a traceable probability.
We capture prediction-market inputs and train models to produce calibrated probabilities and group-conditional evidence strength.
The market aggregates information into prices; Credence calibrates those prices against outcomes and preserves the lineage behind each response.
Current probabilities, explicit timestamps.
Every probability response carries its source time and freshness alongside model, methodology, and release identifiers. An agent can tell how current the data is and which methodology produced the answer.
Every number traces back.
Each response carries audit-grade lineage — snapshot ID, source time, model version, methodology version, and release. The identifiers tie the probability to the versioned methodology that produced it.
Bloomberg-grade provenance on market-implied probability objects.
Let your agent see the future.
We’re inviting design partners ahead of public launch.